Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for HERNAN-20 in Mexico, from 26 Aug 2020 09:00 UTC to 28 Aug 2020 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HERNAN-20

in Mexico,

28 Aug 2020 03 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone HERNAN-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico,
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	74 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.1 m (28 Aug 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	65 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	74 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

65 km/h Current Max.

Up to 360000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	26 Aug 2020 09:00	65	260 thousand	No people	Mexico
2	26 Aug 2020 15:00	65	No people	No people
3	26 Aug 2020 15:00	65	No people	No people
4	27 Aug 2020 03:00	65	60 thousand	No people	Mexico
5	27 Aug 2020 09:00	74	200 thousand	No people	Mexico
6	27 Aug 2020 15:00	74	110 thousand	No people	Mexico
7	27 Aug 2020 21:00	65	110 thousand	No people	Mexico
8	28 Aug 2020 03:00	65	360 thousand	No people	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	26 Aug 2020 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	17.5, -106.7
2	26 Aug 2020 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	17.3, -106.1
3	26 Aug 2020 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	<1000 people	17.7, -105.8
4	27 Aug 2020 03:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	59000 people	18.3, -105.8
5	27 Aug 2020 09:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	82000 people	18.6, -106
6	27 Aug 2020 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	90000 people	19.1, -106.2
7	27 Aug 2020 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	61000 people	19.6, -106.5
8	28 Aug 2020 03:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	13000 people	20.5, -107
8	28 Aug 2020 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	230000 people	21.6, -108.3
8	29 Aug 2020 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	22.3, -110
8	29 Aug 2020 12:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	23, -111.9
8	30 Aug 2020 00:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	23.4, -113.9

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Nayarit	Mexico
Jalisco	Mexico
Colima	Mexico
Baja California Sur	Mexico

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Punta Mita	Nayarit	Mexico	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Isla Maria Madre		5				0
La Gloria		34				0
Playa de Oro International	ZLO	8	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7200
Cabo San Lucas		139				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Ipala		Mexico
El Tabaco		Mexico
Chamela		Mexico
San Hose Del Cabo		Mexico
San Lucas		Mexico

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Cajon de Peda	Tomatlan	1976

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.1m in Santa Cruz, Mexico. This height is estimated for 28 Aug 2020 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (39 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 8 of 28 Aug 2020 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	28 Aug 2020 12:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2020 16:00	Cuitzmala	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2020 00:00	Corrales	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2020 00:00	Aquiles Serdan	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2020 00:00	Ipala	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2020 16:00	Chola	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2020 03:00	Estrecho	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2020 03:00	El Ciruelo	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2020 12:00	Novillero	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2020 12:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2020 01:00	San Lucas	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2020 07:00	San Blas	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2020 18:00	Chamela	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2020 18:00	La Manzanilla	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2020 03:00	Barra de Navidad	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2020 03:00	Santiago	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2020 03:00	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2020 03:00	El Real	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2020 03:00	Chupadero	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2020 23:00	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2020 23:00	San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2020 12:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2020 12:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2020 12:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2020 12:00	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2020 12:00	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2020 03:00	Cuyutlan	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2020 03:00	Apisa	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2020 03:00	Cayaca	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2020 03:00	San Telmo	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2020 03:00	Bucerias	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2020 01:00	Pizota	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2020 01:00	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2020 23:00	Monteon	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2020 23:00	Puerto Vallarta	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2020 12:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2020 12:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2020 22:00	El Tule	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2020 12:00	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.